7 articles published
When spreads trade at record tights, it is the direct result of market complacency and an overreach for yield. The validity of signals originating from the fixed income markets cannot be overstated. There is no greater incorruptible prognostication that the 3 year rally in global risk assets is nearing an end.
During the last year, the main-stream financial media has been replete with stories extolling the imminent failure of Private Credit Lenders. This presentation takes an objective look at the numbers inside the Private Credit industry to ascertain the validity of forecasts for the demise of the sector.
This presentation highlights 20+ metropolitan areas that are experiencing extreme valuations in 2026 which exceed the early 2000's Housing Bubble which led to the the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.
Up until last month, the market priced in 2 additional interest rate cuts for 2026. After the Federal Reserve meeting in March, the market is now pricing in a rate increase in Q4 of 2026. This is a dramatic swing of 75 bps of tightening. Despite comprehensive calls for a U.S. recession in the last 2 years, the opposite appears to be occurring. There is wide-ranging evidence the economy is accelerating. This acceleration is unwelcome as inflation is still dramatically above the Federal Reserve target of 2% and will be exacerbated by expanding economic pressures.
President Trump has levied severe tariffs on trading partners because of the U.S. has largely run a negative trade balance for decades. On a global basis, trades should be a zero-sum game; however, it is not. This presentation shows that the average developed economy runs a current account deficit in the world today.
NVIDIA Corporation has been a focus for Wall Street for several years as its market capitalisation surpassed all but the very largest companies in the world. The market reaction to NVIDIA's Q4 2025 quarterly earnings this week provides telling clues about the future of Nvidia's meteoric rise.
The Beveridge Curve relates US unemployment rate to job openings rate. This important macro economic predictor may have experienced a permanent shift as a result of the COVID Pandemic in 2020-2022. This presentation outlines the important changes in the labor market driven by notable employer changes that become obvious when one considers in sector rotation in equities.