Gold's Safe-Haven Breakout Has Room to Run
Final Outcome Score
Failed
4/9/2026
6 months
4/9/2026 - 7/8/2026
N/A
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
Gold will sustain above $5,000/oz and reach $5,500 by Q3 2026, driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty (tariffs, Iran conflict), capital rotation away from U.S. assets, and a Fed stuck on hold longer than markets expected.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (6)
Gold Price (GLD ETF)
Price • yahoo finance (GLD)
Target
Above 500
Current Value
380.19
Last Updated
7/8/2026
10-Year Treasury Yield
Rate • fred (DGS10)
Target
Below 5
Current Value
4.49
Last Updated
7/3/2026
Federal Funds Rate
Rate • fred (FEDFUNDS)
Target
Below 5.5
Current Value
3.63
Last Updated
7/5/2026
S&P 500
Price • yahoo finance (^SPX)
Target
Below 5000
Current Value
7524.59
Last Updated
7/6/2026
US Dollar Index (DXY)
Price • yahoo finance (DX-Y.NYB)
Target
Below 100
Current Value
101.11
Last Updated
7/2/2026
Silver Price (SLV ETF)
Price • yahoo finance (SLV)
Target
Above 35
Current Value
55.02
Last Updated
7/6/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.