Energy Sector Outperformance as Hormuz Closure Deepens
Final Outcome Score
Failed
4/9/2026
6 months
4/9/2026 - 7/8/2026
N/A
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
The prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure creates a structural supply deficit that SPR releases cannot meaningfully offset, driving sustained energy sector outperformance over the next 3-6 months — even in a ceasefire scenario, where supply chain normalization will lag.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (6)
Brent Crude Oil
Price • yahoo finance (BZ=F)
Target
Above 150
Current Value
72
Last Updated
7/6/2026
Energy Select Sector ETF
Price • yahoo finance (XLE)
Target
Above 120
Current Value
53
Last Updated
7/3/2026
XLE vs SPX Relative Performance
Percentage • manual (XLE_vs_SPX_relative)
Target
Above 15
Current Value
-20.7
Last Updated
6/22/2026
S&P 500 Index
Price • yahoo finance (^SPX)
Target
Below 5000
Current Value
7468.6
Last Updated
7/1/2026
10-Year Treasury Yield
Rate • fred (DGS10)
Target
Above 5
Current Value
4.49
Last Updated
7/3/2026
Federal Funds Rate
Rate • fred (FEDFUNDS)
Target
Above 4.5
Current Value
3.62
Last Updated
6/16/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.