Defense Stocks Catch Up to the Geopolitical Reality
Final Outcome Score
Failed
4/10/2026
6 months
4/10/2026 - 7/9/2026
N/A
Thesis Details
The Event
Our Hypothesis
The aerospace & defense sector (ITA) outperforms the broader market over 6 months as the U.S./Iran conflict, Trump's proposed defense budget increase, and European rearmament force a re-rating of contractor stocks that have lagged the news flow.
Our Rationale
Tags
Measurable Data Points (6)
ITA Aerospace & Defense ETF
Price • yahoo finance (ITA)
Target
Above 190
Current Value
239.63
Last Updated
7/9/2026
XAR SPDR Aerospace & Defense ETF
Price • yahoo finance (XAR)
Target
Above 200
Current Value
280.95
Last Updated
7/9/2026
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Price • yahoo finance (LMT)
Target
Above 550
Current Value
529.71
Last Updated
7/9/2026
RTX Corp
Price • yahoo finance (RTX)
Target
Above 145
Current Value
194.91
Last Updated
7/9/2026
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Price • yahoo finance (NOC)
Target
Above 525
Current Value
545.11
Last Updated
7/9/2026
S&P 500 Benchmark
Price • yahoo finance (^SPX)
Target
Above 5500
Current Value
7524.59
Last Updated
7/6/2026
How we score: Each data point is evaluated as "met", "on track", "off track", or "failed" based on its current value vs. target. The overall confidence score is calculated as the percentage of data points that are "met" or "on track". When a thesis is closed, the final outcome score only counts "met" data points.